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The container shipping market is facing a dual challenge of declining demand and rapid capacity growth. An estimated 5 million TEUs of new ships are expected to be delivered over the next two years, leading to the highest capacity growth in 20 years, while freight rates continue to plummet, increasing market risks. Although there remains a willingness to pay for some capacity, factors such as global economic slowdown and rising inflation create significant uncertainty for future trends. Industry experts warn that the sector must seek transformation under pressure to enhance competitiveness.
The determination of container shipping freight rates is influenced by various factors, including the nature of the goods, origin and destination, contract date, and loading time. Understanding these factors helps optimize transportation costs and decision-making, enhancing logistics efficiency.
In July 2024, China's export container transportation market showed stable improvement with an overall increase in freight rates, as the freight index for major routes generally rose. Despite ongoing challenges affecting the European and North American markets, port throughput has been trending upwards, and the ship leasing market remains active, demonstrating the resilience and potential of the container shipping market.
Global shipping markets face sharp shifts this July, with European route rates hitting record highs due to capacity reallocation and port congestion, while US West Coast rates drop amid oversupply and weak demand. Carriers' pricing updates confirm this divergence, urging shippers and forwarders to monitor trends closely for upcoming volatility.
The Drewry World Container Index has fallen for five consecutive weeks, impacted by tariff policies and economic downturn, leading to weak freight rates. Analysts forecast that further demand shrinkage may increase downward pressure on future freight rates.
Container freight rates have significantly declined, particularly on trans-Pacific routes, with a weekly drop reaching double digits. Weak demand has led to the cancellation of numerous voyages, and more blank sailings are expected in the future, posing severe challenges for the shipping market.
The outlook for the project transport market in 2025 is optimistic, with strong demand for project cargo leading to rising freight rates amidst tight supply. Project transport charter rates are expected to increase by 10-20%, while general cargo rates may rise by 1-7%. The global trade environment continues to be influenced by geopolitical factors and the U.S. election, therefore, it is essential to keep an eye on industry dynamics.
